THE Chinese threat
29 June 2009 by Christopher SuleskeMUCH has been bandied about insofar as the threat China poses to the U.S. economy. Usually it is commentary related to their massive trade surplus. That is the least of our worries. Here is the most immediate concern:
China’s banks are veering out of control. The half-reformed economy of the People’s Republic cannot absorb the $1,000bn (£600bn) blitz of new lending issued since December.
Money is leaking instead into Shanghai’s stock casino, or being used to keep bankrupt builders on life support. It is doing very little to help lift the world economy out of slump.
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Bank exposure to corporate debt has reached $4,200bn. It is rising at a 30pc rate, even as profits contract at a 35pc rate.
Fitch traces the 2009 bubble to the central bank’s decision to cut interest on reserves to 0.72pc. Bankers responded to this “margin squeeze” by ramping up the volume of lending instead. Over half the new debt is short-term. Roll-over risk is rocketing. China’s monetary stimulus since November is arguably more extreme than the post-Lehman printing of the US Federal Reserve, though less obvious to the untrained eye.
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Unfortunately, 40pc of the “real economy” consists of exports, mostly to the US and Europe, the consequence of a (sic) mercantile export model that has (sic) crashed and burned. Chinese exports were down 26pc in May.
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Protectionism is a risky game for a country that lives off global trade and runs a surplus near 10pc of GDP. Mr Pettis said he fears China is nearing its “Smoot-Hawley moment”, repeating the US tariff blunder of 1930 that brought the world crashing down on Washington’s head.